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Market Outlook

Lessons from historical shocks, ceasefires, and emerging opportunities

Key points. The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran fits within our base-case scenario of a gradual easing of tensions in the Middle East, with limited repercussions for growth and inflation.  We maintain a neutral stance on equities and bonds. Within equities,...
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Quantification of the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East by region

Key points. In our baseline scenario, which assumes a limited rise in oil prices, the effects of the conflict should remain contained for all major economies.  This baseline scenario would see a negligible rise in overall inflation and unemployment in the United States, as...
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The energy shock highlights the disparities in Asia

Key points. China's large oil reserves, its capacity to produce alternative energy sources, and its diversified import channels make it more resilient than most other Asian economies to supply disruptions.  Asian economies, excluding China, are exposed to a risk of stagflation, given their dependence...
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US-Israel-Iran conflict: macroeconomic and investment scenarios

Key points. The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran is increasing risks to the global economy and financial markets. We are exploring two scenarios: our baseline scenario of contained escalation and our risk scenario of a global oil shock. In our baseline...
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Changes in US tariff policy, risks in the Middle East: what are the consequences for the markets?

Key points. The announcement of new universal 15% US tariffs on imports is expected to have only a limited impact on markets. US trade policy remains uncertain, with the Trump administration now turning to other legislation to impose tariffs specific to certain countries. ...
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Strong profits and increased focus on AI

Key points. Figures published by American companies show solid profit growth and profitability. However, given the high valuations, investors are becoming more selective about the stocks they reward. The performance of the US stock market spans from the technology sector to, among others, industrials,...
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