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Market Outlook

Growth exceeding expectations suggests a stable outlook in the United States and Europe.

Key points. The stronger-than-expected economic momentum in 2025 leads us to anticipate global and US growth close to its potential in 2026, and broadly stable compared to 2025. We are raising our annual growth forecasts for the United States and the Eurozone to 2.2%...
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Sovereign bonds revisited

Key points. The changing correlations between asset classes are altering the role of sovereign bonds in multi-asset portfolios, and they are no longer as reliable as diversification tools within portfolios.  Fiscal and political risks have pushed bond yields higher, particularly in Japan, but improvements...
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China’s stability supports emerging market assets

Key points. Given the strong export momentum, coupled with new fiscal stimulus measures, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.3% this year, a level higher than our previous scenario.  We anticipate the yuan will continue to strengthen in 2026, but at a...
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AI’s promises in terms of productivity and the rivalry between China and the United States

Key points. In the absence of exogenous shocks, AI-related productivity gains are expected to help boost potential US growth to an average of 2.1% over the next decade, reaching 2.4% by the mid-2030s. AI is expected to have only a limited and gradual impact...
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US tariffs related to Greenland are expected to have more of a political than an economic impact.

Key points. The proposed US tariffs on eight NATO allies for their support of Greenland are expected to have only a marginal economic impact, increasing effective tariffs by about 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points. With the approach of the US midterm elections and with...
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The American intervention in Venezuela brings spheres of influence back to the forefront of geopolitics

Key points. The American intervention in Venezuela signals a geopolitical shift towards regional spheres of influence. Given the modest size of the Venezuelan economy, the impact on markets should be limited in the short term. Despite possible transient volatility in emerging markets, the medium-term...
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